PUBLIC HEALTH / RESEARCH PAPER
"LC Risk Score" - development and evaluation of a scale for assessing the risk of developing long COVID
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1
Department of Family Medicine, Wroclaw Medical University, 51-141 Wroclaw, Poland, Poland
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Department of Pharmacology, Faculty of Medical Sciences in Zabrze, Medical University of Silesia, 41-808 Zabrze, Poland., Poland
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Department of Internal Diseases, Rehabilitation, and Physical Medicine, Medical University of Lodz, 90-647 Lodz, Poland, Poland
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Department of Preventive Cardiology and Lipidology, Medical University of Lodz, 93-338 Lodz, Poland, Poland
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Ciccarone Center for the Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, 600 N. Wolfe St, Carnegie 591, Baltimore, MD 21287, USA, United States
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Department of Internal Medicine and Geriatric Cardiology, Medical Centre for Postgraduate Education, 01-813 Warsaw, Poland, Poland
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Department of Biomedicine and Experimental Surgery, Medical University of Lodz, 90-136 Lodz, Poland, Poland
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Department of Functional Genomics, Faculty of Medicine, Medical University of Lodz, Żeligowskiego 7/9, 90-752 Lodz, Poland., Poland
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Boruta Medical Centre, 95-100 Zgierz, Poland, Poland
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Department of Nephrology, Hypertension and Family Medicine, Medical University of Lodz, 90-549 Lodz, Poland, Poland
Submission date: 2024-04-06
Final revision date: 2024-04-19
Acceptance date: 2024-04-21
Online publication date: 2024-04-21
Corresponding author
Mateusz Babicki
Department of Family Medicine, Wroclaw Medical University, 51-141 Wroclaw, Poland, Syrokomli 1, 51-141, Wrocław, Poland
KEYWORDS
TOPICS
ABSTRACT
Introduction:
Objective: To create a valuable practical tool for evaluating the risk of LC development.
Material and methods:
1150 patients from the Polish STOP-COVID registry (PoLoCOV study) were used to develop the risk score. The patients were ill between 03/2020 and 04/2022. To develop a clinically useful scoring model. The LC risk score was generated using the machine learning-based framework AutoScore. Patient data were first randomised into a training (70% of output) and a test (30% of output) cohorts. Due to relatively small study group, cross-validation was used. Model predictive ability was evaluated based on the ROC curve and the AUC value. The result of the risk score for a given patient was the total value of points assigned to selected variables.
Results:
To create long COVID Risk Score, eight variables were ultimately selected due to their significance and clinical value. Female gender significantly contributed to higher final outcome values, with age range 40-49, BMI <18.5 kg/m2, hospitalisation during active disease, arthralgia, myalgia as well as loss of taste and smell during infection, COVID-19 symptoms lasting at least 14 days, and unvaccinated status. The final predictive value of the developed LC risk score for a cut-off of 58 points was AUC=0.630 (95% CI: 0.571-0.688) with sensitivity - 39.80%, specificity - 85.1%, positive predictive value - 80.8%, and negative predictive value 47.3%.
Conclusions:
Conclusions: The LC risk score might be a practical and undemanding utility that employs basic sociodemographic data, vaccination status, and symptoms during COVID-19 to assess the risk of long-COVID.